In slow motion – The market seems out of breath, both on the buying side and on the selling side. After 9 consecutive weeks in the red, Bitcoin offers us a green candle. It may seem trivial, but this is a weekly green candle on the support of Bitcoin, a sign that the buyers are present. On the other hand, it remains timid and any upward movement is quickly annihilated by the sellers. Bitcoin being a risky asset, let’s see the behavior of safe haven assets like gold and the dollar. Let’s also analyze US equities to see if silver is picking up the direction of risk assets. Let’s go for the eighteenth edition of the Macro Hebdo update!
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Bitcoin in a hellish range
Bitcoin is struggling to shed its tidy daily between $30,700 and $28,700. This is a third unsuccessful attempt for buyers.
Bitcoin is still under the bearish trendline on a daily basis. Buyers succeeded in reverse the trend in daily, but it will also be necessary to break the trendline (brown) to have a bullish momentum. In addition, the RSI blocks on the resistance. The momentum is weak for the moment.
From the lowest to $26,700Bitcoin bounced back nearly 20%, but he can’t continue at the moment. Generally speaking, when the price reenters a range, it will often look for the opposite boundary. If this scenario plays out, Bitcoin could end up back at $28,700.
On Binance’s perpetual contract, players continue toopen positions while the price does not move or little. More specifically, open interest has been climbing steadily since December 2021, while the price has fallen by almost 50%. The long/short ratio is an indicator that gives the ratio between the number of long positions and the number of short positions. This has dropped drastically and that’s a good sign, because it often allows you to have a bounce.
You have to be careful, because the funding is neutral. It does not make it possible to know the behavior of a majority of the actors. Once the direction has been taken, there is a risk of finding volatility to liquidate players who have taken aggressive positions in a sense.
Risk off: gold is struggling, the dollar is rising again
Gold stalls at the first stop level at $1,867
We said it in theprevious editiongold could block at the first stop. This is currently the case for the safe haven asset:
Gold retains, for the moment, a daily bearish momentum. The course has found buyers at $1,790but currently there is no no strong rollover structure. The momentum is brittleit will be necessary for the RSI to also structure before being able to find a bullish momentum in this unit of time.
Gold and Bitcoin are two similar assets from a point of view fundamentalbut they are both active opponents in the financial markets. Players currently consider Bitcoin to be a risky asset. Gold would therefore have to weaken to see that money is heading towards risky assets.
Currently, gold is sleeping. Bitcoin must absolutely take advantage of this to regain strength.
The dollar finds buyers, but could block on resistance?
The dollar index must be weak if we want to find strong risky assets. Recently, the dollar index has shown some signs of weaknessbut not yet enough to be completely reassured:
In this unit of time, the dollar index has reintegrated the tidy. As said above, when a price reenters a range, it will often look for the opposite limit. At the moment, there is nothing to show that the bull run is over and that the dollar will turn around here.
The dollar seems lose strength on a strong resistance and the momentum shows a potential discrepancy. It will have to be confirmed by closing below 47 of RSI.
The equity market has rebounded, a rise over?
The S&P 500 on resistance
The S&P 500 has bounced back almost 10% from the lowest. It is currently at the level of a resistance important:
Buyers defended the area at $3,900 and succeeded in pushing up the resistance to $4,170. It’s a dual resistance since there is the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) which also acts as resistance.
It is entirely possible that the S&P 500 will put in place a tidy between the red terminal and the green terminal. Buyers should absolutely defend support and the lowest point at $3,800.
The momentum is powerful against the fall of the S&P 500 and could mark a divergence closing above 65 of RSI.
The S&P 500 looks pretty solid and he could now build a market low. At the moment, there is no evidence that the sellers can’t push the price a bit more towards $3,700we must remain vigilant.
Coinbase may continue to rise towards the first stop
Coinbase stock is in free fall for many months. Recently, she was able to bounce back close to $40. The action should develop a dynamic change for the cryptocurrency market.
The course has bounced back, yes, but there is no indication that the decline is over. The structure is not not solid and it seems realistic that Coinbase will sooner or later come back close to the low at around $40. In the meantime, it is not impossible to review an action at the level of the first stop at $104 even at the level of the last resistance at $150.
The momentum is still under the bearish trendline and could do resistance in a few days. The momentum remains bearish.
The NASDAQ soon on resistance?
The NASDAQ could, like the S&P 500, start to tidy between support and resistance:
The NASDAQ is approaching resistance. It is possible that the course will take place dismiss to structure a range between the red terminal and the green terminal. At the moment it is only a bouncethere is no strong rollover structure. The S&P 500 looks a little stronger, as it is already touching resistance, but the two indices have a similar development.
Momentum is showing divergence. It will be validated in the event of a close above 65 of RSI. The momentum is surprisingly strong compared to the fall in price and this is a positive point for risky assets.
Bitcoin is stuck in an infernal range and it looks like it could continue in the days to come. The dollar resumes the rise, but it could quickly find resistance. This asset must lose value for risky assets like Bitcoin can fully express themselves. As for US equities, it is likely that a range will emerge after a sharp drop in the main indices. The fall is not necessarily over, there is, for the moment, no solid structure to be able to affirm it. Safe-haven assets and risky assets are inversely correlated, as it will be necessary to wait for the dollar to change momentum before capital finds itself again in risky assets. It may take time.
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