The decline continues…– Ethereum has already had a better time. The month of April was complicated, because it lost 25%. This remains generally correct when compared to Bitcoin which also lost 25% over the same period. In a bear market, Bitcoin causes all altcoins to plunge as it did in 2018. This is not the case at the moment. Is Ethereum still bullish in the medium term? What are the levels to keep to hope to see new all-time highs? We analyze the creation of Vitalik Buterin.
This analysis of the Ethereum price is brought to you in collaboration with the Coin Trading and its algorithmic trading solution finally accessible to individuals.
Ethereum remains bullish over the long term
Ethereum has regained momentum bullish since August 2020. He reversed the trend thanks to a rollover structure in double bottom (double hollow) in August 2020. Here is the monthly time horizon chart:
The Dow Theory tells us that the primary momentum is bullish if the bottoms and tops of an asset are ascending. This has been the case for Ethereum since August 2020. At the moment, primary momentum is bullish. To maintain this momentum, Ethereum must absolutely keep $2,150 in this time scale.
There is another level to look at. This is the dotted line located approximately $3,600. The objective of buyers is to close above $3,600. At the moment, Ethereum is stuck in a tidy between these two key levels. The fence above $3,600or below $2,150will be decisive.
Ethereum in weekly timescale
The monthly scale is interesting because it shows that the price is moving in a range that follows a bullish momentum. The odds favor a bullish pursuitbut let’s see the graph in weekly time units:
In this unit of time, we notice that the trend is bullish, because the troughs and peaks are ascending. The recent fall may seem impressivebut the price was able to react and find buyers under $2,500. The latter regained control of the price since the “W” structure confirmed by closing above $3,280 the week of March 22.
The RSI describes the momentumthat is, to evaluate the strength of the buyers against the strength of the sellers. Recently, buyers have come forward again. On the other hand, the RSI is always located below the downtrendline (black) and below neutral zone at 50 RSI. It is absolutely necessary that the buyers push to be able to break out of this bearish trendline and thus regain strength.
Ethereum in the short term: support at $2,600!
As we have seen, the weekly and monthly time units are encouraging. Recently, on a daily basis, the price of Ethereum bled like the entire market for so-called risky assets. It’s possible that the worst of the fall is now behind us.
Ethereum lost approx. 25% in April. He could have used the bracket at $3,000 to rebound, but sellers managed to smash it. The course is approaching a new support at $2,600. This level is important to maintain, because otherwise price could head below $2,150 to recover cash. A trendline (black) is also present and could serve as support as well.
The RSI momentum is not clearly in favor of the buyers as it is below the neutral zone. On the other hand, the current level has several times allowed buyers to make the price rebound.
The trend remains bullish and it is likely that the price will come back sooner or later in the shorts reload zone between $3,800 and $4,300.
On-chain analysis and market sentiment:
On-chain analysis is often very interesting, because it allowsanalyze transactions directly on the blockchain. It allows you to know the behavior of large wallets. Whales are entities with more than 1,000 BTC. For Ethereum it is worth looking at the behavior of entities with more than 10,000 ETH :
This metric highlights the number of addresses with more than 10,000 ETH. We see that this number has dropped since May 2021. This suggests that there has been distribution (profit taking) from these entities switching to stablecoins.
Recently, the number of addresses with more than 10,000 ETH has significantly increased. Big wallets seem to be interested in any returns below $3,000. We will see if this number of addresses continues to climb in the weeks and months to come.
It is interesting to study the market sentiment. You know it, you have to know take profits when actors are euphoric and think about buying when actors are in fear. Here is a graph of the sentiment of the players about Vitalik Buterin’s token:
Santiment is a site that gathers data on social networks like Reddit, Twitter or Telegram. It saves keywords from different messages on social networks and classes to associate these keywords with fear or euphoria. A high point shows euphoria and a low point shows fear.
We see that the feeling was very pronounced in November 2021. That’s within a few dollars of the local top. We also see that there was a certain euphoria in April. Players were able to leverage thinking this was the market low point for Ethereum.
Currently, the feeling is very reasonable. This bodes well for the weeks to come.
Bitcoin being highly correlated to US markets, as explained in this article, it is currently complicated for cryptocurrencies to fully express themselves. It is of course the same problem for Ethereum which itself is very correlated to what Bitcoin does. On the other hand, we see that Ethereum remains very solid technically. It is currently in primary bullish momentum. It will be necessary to confirm this by keeping $2,150 at the monthly close. The update The Merge has been postponed again, it will be necessary to remain attentive to this event.
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