While Bitcoin is on track to definitively cross the resistance of $46,000, Ethereum (ETH) could imitate it by taming that of $3,400 shortly. On closer inspection, the fact that Wall Street and major European indices have all but wiped out losses related to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, is a major contributor to the renewed momentum of two major digital currencies.
While we’re at it, the prince of cryptos would do well to ride the latest favorable moves in BTC. In which case a highly unexpected return on a level that is both major and symbolic would risk inflaming – right or wrong – cryptocurrency investors. And it is in this uncertain market context that we will see if the technical analyzes of ETH have continued their momentum since mid-March.
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Ethereum – The weekly Kijun in sight!
Jabut two without three – Like the past two weeks, Ethereum confirmed a third consecutive week on the rise. Thanks to this good series, it is currently offering the scalp of the resistance of $3400. And at the same time, it goes back slightly above the Kumo (cloud). However, at time T, the price of ETH is with formidable precision at the level of the Kijun, which unfortunately is close to this dear resistance.
As we mentioned last week, the horizontal slope of the Kijun observed since the week of January 17, could block the current rebound, and therefore its future conquest of $4000. Moreover, the current weekly candle remains hesitant to such an extent that it is currently trading at the level of this Ichimoku curve.
With a Chikou Span beyond the Kumo, but drowned in the prices of the prince of cryptos, the neutralization of the bull cycle since 2019 is gradually receding. Now remains to break out of its downtrend since its last ATH in November 2021. And for that, crossing the weekly Kijun would be one of the conditions sine qua non.
Ethereum – The door is wide open in daily units
The exit of the symmetrical triangle from above sent two favorable technical signals to initiate this beautiful comeback. First, it gave rise to the breakout of $2,800 on March 18. Second, that of $3400 which would be on the right track. And as the good news also flies in squadron, Ethereum has free rein on the upside with regard to its current position compared to the various curves of the Ichimoku.
If the difference between the Tenkan and the Kijun is significant and could cause concern in the short term, we must put it into perspective because of their respective calculation methods. The first tends to react quickly to the slightest upward or downward movement, while the second is much less dynamic like what happens in weekly units.
More the curve of the Ichimoku that holds my attention is the Chikou Span. Indeed, it would be about to validate the crossing of the resistance of $ 3400. Not to mention that its position is well above the Kumo with regard to the price dynamics of ETH. Enough to give credit to the next conquest of $4000.
In summary, an upward coordination between the Tenkan and the Kijun in daily units would make it possible to continue the recovery of Ethereum in a healthy way, which began in mid-March. In this case, the major and symbolic resistance of $4000 would be in sight. However, the prince of cryptos will not succeed without the welcome help of Bitcoin, which itself dictates the law on the cryptocurrency cycle. This is why the king of cryptos would benefit from preserving its good momentum of recent weeks.
Nevertheless, and contrary to the general trend, I am surprised by this upward surge in all risky asset classes during the month of March. In my opinion, it was done without real conviction. By drawing a parallel with the latest technical analyzes of Ethereum, we feel that the worst is behind us. It’s as if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the monetary tightening of the central banks passed like a letter in the post office.
However, the uncertainties concerning them are far from over. Hence my caution not to definitively mark the end of ETH’s downtrend since its last ATH in November 2021. Thus, in the event of a new episode of financial stress, the $4,000 could serve as a turning point for a “Dead cat bounce” type phenomenon.
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