– 82% in a year: is Ethereum’s fall finally over?

Can cryptocurrencies become attractive again in 2023?– Another bad news on the cryptocurrency side. Silvergate, a bank specializing in digital assets, has laid off 40% of its staff. Many cryptocurrency-related companies continue to downsize, showing that the situation is still tender. After falling 82% from its peak in November 2021, Ethereum can he recover?

Ethereum shows a write-down similar to the last cycles

Ethereum (ETH) is in free fall since the end of 2021, like most cryptocurrencies. Over the course of a year, Ethereum fell 82% since its all-time high at $4,860. This may sound huge (and it is), but it is not unique to the second capitalization of cryptos:

Drawdown on Ethereum since 2016 Source: Glassnode

that drawdown (percent decline from high) on Ethereum is within the standards of what the asset has experienced since 2016. Admittedly, it may be shocking, but Ethereum has fallen by more than 90% during the last cycle. If you believe in the project created by Vitalik Buterin, the worst may be behind you. However, this does not indicate a low market. It will be necessary to study the technical analysis to identify key levels for a dynamic change.

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Ethereum may revive bullish momentum

It is possible that Ethereum is close to market low, or even that it has already experienced its market low. To do this, buyers need to regain control of the price:

Ethereum has an opportunity to regain bullish momentum.
Ethereum Price vs. Dollar (3D)

There is two key levels for Ethereum, which will determine the direction for the next few weeks or months. To find one bullish momentum in the short term it will be necessary to break the level $1,350. This level will not be easy to break because institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) could to reject the lesson. That too bearish trend line started in August could block the process. It will be necessary to pass weekly resistance of $1,900 to find a real one bullish momentum weekly. A fence over $2,030 would be very positive for the course of events.

NB, the sellers have the opportunity to drive the item home. For this, it will be necessary to close below the last low at $1,075. If this low is depressed, will bearish momentum continues. Whatever happens, will $1000 weekly support must hold to avoid one new bearish wave.

The progress is bearish since the break bearish trend line. The RSI is trying to start rising again, but the bearish trend line can again to reject the lesson. The situation is still difficult for the Ether coin, but buyers have the opportunity to regain control at the start of 2023.

Ethereum is trying to rally against Bitcoin

The price of the ETH/BTC pair is in a cleaned up since the beginning of May 2021. Against the background of the market situation, Ethereum is holding its own, and even allows itself to attempt an increase against Bitcoin:

Ethereum regains strength against Bitcoin.
The price of Ethereum against Bitcoin (3D)

Ethereum regains strength against Bitcoin. The course breaks bearish trend line commenced in September 2022, it continues to confirm the outbreak. The breakout must actually be confirmed by the price development above 0.076 BTC. Also, buyers must definitely get out of the range by taking the price beyond resistance at 0.08 BTC. This resistance is strong, but the more it is affected, the more it tends to weaken.

The momentum sends one bullish signal. The bearish trendline gives way, it has rejected the price since August 2022. When such a strong bearish trendline gives way, the price can experience strong buying power. For this, it will also be necessary to exceed the level of 62 of RSI.

Coming Upswing in Bitcoin Dominance?

It seems like capital flows into bitcoin at the start of 2023. The graph shows a bullish momentum within one cleaned up Between 40% and 47% of dominance:

Bitcoin Dominance is Bullish in Three Day Time Frame.
Bitcoin Dominance Chart (3D)

The course is on par with institutional bias. These moving averages could allow under jump, and to confirm the capital’s direction over the past months. If the trend is confirmed and the price continues to develop above 42%altcoins could struggle (scenario with green arrow).

The scenario materialized by the red arrow is less likely, but it is important to imagine the different possible scenarios in order to react accordingly. Whose institutional bias gives in and does not allow any rebound, the price will again go in the direction of weekly support. This support allowed the price to increase fivefold, but support weakens. A return to the weekly support level would be very positive for altcoins.

RSI is moving above bullish trend line. At the moment, everything seems to point to one bullish continuation of Bitcoin dominance. It seems like Bitcoin is the attractive asset at the beginning of the year for cryptocurrencies.

Altcoin Capitalization Still Fragile Below $495 Billion

Altcoins are on the precipice. If the medium to 435 billion dollars gives in, altcoins could fall by the wayside 25% :

The capitalization of altcoins is fragile.
Altcoin Cap Chart (3D)

Capital letters remain around 435 billion dollars since several weeks. At the moment the course is confronted with institutional bias, and this could reject the course. In the event of rejection and withdrawal of the support, the price may fall towards next aid of $330 billion (scenario with red arrow).

Buyers have the option to avoid this bearish scenario. For this, it will be necessary to go beyond the institutional bias and break weekly resistance at $480bn. This level is very important to restore, as long as the price is below, altcoins will remain fragile. RSI is too fragileit will take a trend with bottoms and rising tops to find colors on this chart.

Ethereum has the opportunity to regain bullish momentum in the short and medium term. If Ethereum closes above $1,350, altcoins could benefit. In fact, let’s not forget that the Ether coin is the leader of altcoins. Against Bitcoin, Ethereum is trying to find its way back up. Buyers will have to confirm by breaking above the weekly resistance, and it won’t be easy. The resistance has held for over a year and a breakout of this level would be a significant bullish signal for altcoins. The capitalization of altcoins must rise above $495 billion to avoid a new worst-case scenario on the altcoin side. Will 2023 be the year the cryptocurrency boom returns?

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